Tuesday, August 20, 2013

AMERICAN NINJA WARRIOR, SEASON 5: MOVING ON TO VEGAS

Congrats to the following athletes who have made it to the next round:
(COMP=completed 2nd round course; in parentheses and # is rank in the beginning round)
With ~, are Vegas veterans from last year; ranking from last year is out of the 90 that went to Vegas
~ without a number means went to Japan (Vegas equivalent in past years)
% Means has participated in competition in past years but didn't go to Vegas/Japan before
With * are Stage 2 ranks in Vegas last year, adding in Vegas runs, out of 24 participants





Consult this page for last year's ANW ranks.

DENVER:
1) Paul Kasemir (COMP) (#5) (~4,*3)
2) Josh Cook (COMP) (#9)
3) Brian Arnold (COMP) (#12) (~15,*9)
4) Isaac Caldiero (COMP) (#20)
5) Colby Frontiero (COMP) (#19)
6) Casey Finley  (#7)
7) Tremayne Dortch (#18) (~69)
8) Kyle Sinacori (#15)
9) Andres De La Rosa (#26) (%)
10) Christopher Romrell (#4)
11) Lorin Ball (#6) (~25,*10)
12) Jake Smith (#3) (~32)
13) Caleb Garnham (#8)
14) Camilo Brokaw (#11)
15) Josh Grant (#17) (~79)

MIAMI:
1) Drew Drechsel (COMP) (#1) (~2,*2)
2) Flip Rodriguez (COMP) (#2) (~1,*1)
3) William Brown (COMP) (#5) (~17)
4) Travis Rosen (COMP) (#3) (~5,*5)
5) Tukrong Klengdong (COMP) (#22)
6) Yev Kouchnir (COMP) (#9)
7) Jason Soares (COMP) (#27)
8) Ryan Stratis (COMP) (#16) (~)
9) Grant David (#8)
10) Idoko Abuh (#23)
11) Brandon Smith (#24)
12) Jonathan Brown (#20)
13) Joseph Rosello (#11)
14) John Walker (#13)
15) Josh Romeo (#4)

BALTIMORE:
1) Dan Galiczynski (COMP) (#5) (~61)
2) Joe Moravsky (COMP) (#6)
3) Brian Wilczewski (COMP) (#12)
4) Michael Silenzi (COMP) (#10) (~70)
5) Jeffrey Tan (COMP) (#19)
6) Andrew Lowes (COMP) (#11) (~81)
7) Dan Moschella (COMP) (#14)
8) Jamie Rahn (COMP) (#3) (%)
9) David Slovenski (COMP) (#18)
10) Tim Shieff (#4) (~11)
11) Michael Needham (#2) (%)
12) Travis Weinand (#22) (%)
13) Adam Grossman (#23) (~40)
14) Michael Pericoloso (#24) (~89)
15) Seth Caskey (#20)

VENICE:
1) James McGrath (COMP) (#5) (~3,*4)
2) Dustin Rocho (COMP) (#8) (%)
3) JB Douglas (COMP) (#21) (~51,*19)
4) David Campbell (COMP) (#3) (~10)
5) James Eggiman (#14)
6) James Sclar (#13) (%)
7) Jesse La Flair (#1) (~13)
8) Dan Mast (#26) (~33)
9) Brian Kretsch (#7) (~58)
10) Luke Carson (#27)
11) Lance Pekus (#4) (%)
12) Justin Walcker (#12) (~48)
13) Levi Keller (#25)
14) Mario Mendoza (#22)
15) Will Roberts (#29) (%)
Brent Steffensen (11th, 17th for wildcard)
Noah Kaufman (10th, 18th for wildcard)

OVERALL RANKING HEADING INTO VEGAS (out of 60)
*This adds up this season's 1st and 2nd obstacle course scores; in the event of a tie, we use the rank of ANW4 or veteran status to break ties. If there is no rank/veteran status of ANW4 to go by, then the athletes remain tied. It's important to consider these rankings because the clock goes down instead of up in Vegas, so speed really matters. In *YELLOW* means athlete has advanced to stage two.

1) Drew Drechsel 2 (~2,*2)
2) Flip Rodriguez 4 (~1,*1)
3T) Paul Kasemir 6 (~4,*3)
3T) James McGrath 6 (~3,*4)
5) Dan Galiczynski 6 (~61)
6) Travis Rosen 7 (~5,*5)
7) David Campbell 7 (~10)
8) Jesse La Flair 8 (~13)
9) William Brown 8 (~17)
10) Joe Moravsky 8
11) Dustin Rocho 10 (%)
12) Jamie Rahn 11 (%)
13) Josh Cook 11
14) Michael Needham 13 (%)
15) Casey Finley 13
16) Tim Shieff 14 (~11)
17) Michael Silenzi 14 (~70)
18) Christopher Romrell 14
19) Brian Arnold 15 (~15,*9)
20) Jake Smith 15 (~32)
21) Lance Pekus 15 (%)
22T) Brian Wilczewski 15
22T) Yev Kouchnir 15
24) Brian Kretsch 16 (~58)
25) Lorin Ball 17 (~25,*10)
26) Andrew Lowes 17 (~81)
27) Grant David 17
WILDCARD [28] Elet Hall 18 (~29,*16)
28) James Sclar 19 (%)
29T) Josh Romeo 19
29T) James Eggiman 19

31T) Dan Moschella 21
31T) Caleb Garnham 21
33) Kyle Sinacori 23
34) JB Douglas 24 (~51,*19)
35) Justin Walcker 24 (~48)
36) Ryan Stratis 24 (~)
37T) Isaac Caldiero 24
37T) Colby Frontiero 24
37T) Jeffrey Tan 24
37T) Joseph Rosello 24
41T) Tremayne Dortch 25 (~69)
41T) Camilo Brokaw 25
43T) Tukrong Klengdong 27
43T) John Walker 27
43T) David Slovenski 27
WILDCARD [46] Brent Steffensen 28 (~18,*7,1)
WILDCARD [47] Noah Kaufman 28
46) Josh Grant 32 (~79)
47) Jonathan Brown 32
48) Idoko Abuh 33
49) Dan Mast 34 (~33)
50) Travis Weinand 34 (%)
51) Jason Soares 34
52) Andres De La Rosa 35 (%)
53T) Brandon Smith 35
53T) Seth Caskey 35
55) Adam Grossman 36 (~40)
56) Mario Mendoza 36
57) Luke Carson 37
58) Michael Pericoloso 38 (~89)
59) Levi Keller 38
60) Will Roberts 44

A couple of notes: 
*Typically, only the top 30 are of interest (before ANW4, they would aggregate all cities into one setting and take only the top 30, so this tries to get the top aggregate contenders), and if we're serious, only the top ten (single digits) are super legit.
*Notice everyone in the top ten, with the exception of super rookie Joe Moravsky, made it to Vegas last year. Being a veteran is a real help, of course. But even more so, with the exception of Dan Galiczynski, every one of those guys ranked in the top 20 (out of the expanded pool of 90) heading into Vegas last year. What this proves? All these guys are just rock solid consistent, year to year. And that's what you need to get into the top ten.
*Let's look deeper into this pool. These guys are the legends of ANW, being in the top 5 consistently last year and this year: Drew Drechsel, Flip Rodriguez, Paul Kasemir and James McGrath. And none of them are what you'd call true parkour types, but they're beasts, mentally tough and with a killer instinct. And let's not underestimate Travis Rosen, who just barely missed out on the top five this year but was in the top five the past year.
*Other rock solid vets who are in the top twenty this year and were in the top twenty last year? Led by the legendary David Campbell in this category, we also have Jesse La Flair, William Brown, Tim "Livewire" Shieff and Brian Arnold.
*Biggest Vegas risers from the past year? Within that top ten, Dan Galiczynski is a Vegas vet and really made a huge jump from the past year (+56). Andrew Lowes (+55) jumps into the top 30, Michael Silenzi made a huge jump (+53) into the top 20, Brian Kretsch (+34) also gets into the top 30. Other notables with over +10 risings include Josh Grant (+33), Michael Pericoloso (+31), Tremayne Dortch (+28), JB Douglas (+17), Justin Walcker (+13) and inconsistent parkour master/Ninja vet Jake Smith (+12).  Galiczynski is the one to watch, but all of these have potential in future seasons and may need this year to find their bearings.
*Returning...with a vengeance: These are veterans who missed the cut to go to Vegas last year, but were mighty impressive in their showings this year and will go to Vegas. Specifically, we'll focus on the top 20, where we have Dustin Rocho, Jamie Rahn and Michael Needham showing that ninja fortitude and all have some darkhorse potential. A shout-out also goes to Lance Pekus and James Sclar, returners who round out the 30.
*Impressive rookies: Everyone loves salvation stories, but just like in sports, no event functions without the newbies to grow and cultivate for future seasons. Really, really look out for Joe Moravsky, an impressive rookie who lands in the top ten. In the top twenty, we also see Josh Cook, Casey Finley and Christopher Romrell. Special shout outs go to Brian Wilczewski, Yev Kouchnir, Grant David, Josh Romeo and James Eggiman for rounding out the top 30.
*Athletes who "appear" to have regressed: At least -10 from their ranking the past year: Adam Grossman (-15) and Dan Mast (-17). And if you've regressed this year, you've really regressed: last year it was out of 90, this year it's only out of 60. Of course there's disappointments who aren't even going to Vegas, like Elet Hall (#29 last year) and the legendary Brent Steffensen (#18 R1, #7 R2) and to some extent Derek Nakamoto (#34 R1, #13 R2) and Paul Darnell (39/17), and even further down the line Midoriyama vets like Brian Orosco and Shane Daniels, but at least for the former two, they will likely be one of the ten people inserted to run to Vegas by virtue of their legend. There are others who we know ran the course this year but definitely regressed from last year's rank, including Matthew Derouen (#8 last year), Sean Morris (#9), Bull Bullard (#12), Andrew Karsen (#21), Chris Wilczewski (#22), Thomas Hall (#23), Brendan Kelly (#26) and Luis Moco (#30).
*What happened to these dudes? We know Brandon Douglass (#6 last year) got injured, the producers must have pissed off Travis Furlanic to the point he wouldn't re-audition (#7 last year and David Campbell's nephew), and Evan Dollard (#28) is now working for ANW behind the scenes. But what about others? Consulting the link I posted above, these guys ranked in the top 30 heading to Vegas last year, but are nowhere to be found: Sat Khalsa (#14 last year), Remi Bakkar (#16/8), Michael Eckert (#19), Josh Lobeck (#20), Ahmed Toure (#24/11) and Kole Stevens (#27/12). Of the lower level sleepers who somehow advanced to Round 2, we haven't seen Nathaniel Spencer, Sean Noble, Danny Johnson, Ben Snead or Will Dodd either. Hopefully they will return in future seasons.
*As usual, we note that this isn't an "exact" science, and that athletes who fall outside the top thirty of these rankings, by sheer probability and will-power, can still go through to Stage 2 or further in Vegas. Last year, out of the remaining 60 outside the top 30, 8 went on to Stage 2, for a probability of about 13.3%. This suggests about 4 of these athletes will hit Stage 2 this year. Last year, we saw that over half of the top 30 (16 of them) advanced to stage, so it's a coin toss for these athletes. In fact, everyone in the top 6 went to stage 2 last year. We'll see this year.

VEGAS fastest times:
1) Elet Hall 39.25
2) Lorin Ball 38.62
3) James McGrath 38.47
4) Joe Moravsky 36.23
5) Brent Steffensen 30.63
6) Jesse La Flair 26.97
7) Josh Cook 26.03
8) Chris Romrell 24.86
9) William Brown 22.73
10) Paul Kasemir 22.34
11) Drew Drechsel 21.63
12) Jamie Rahn 19.26
13) Casey Finley 18.90
14) Noah Kaufman 14.10
15) Travis Rosen 13.50
16) Yev Kouchnir 9.67
17) Kyle Sinacori 7.60
18) Andres De La Rosa 4.24
19) Brian Arnold 3.64
20) Travis Weinand 2.30
21) Idoko Abuh 1.98

MY VEGAS POWER RANKINGS, FROM THE START OF THIS SEASON:
1) James McGrath 9 (~3,*4)
2) Joe Moravsky 12
3) Drew Drechsel 13 (~2,*2)
4) Jesse La Flair 14 (~13)
5) Paul Kasemir 16 (~4,*3)
6) William Brown 17 (~17)
7) Josh Cook 18
8) Lorin Ball 19 (~25,*10)
9) Elet Hall 19 (~29,*16)
10) Travis Rosen 22 (~5,*5)
11) Christopher Romrell 22
12) Jamie Rahn 23 (%)
13) Casey Finley 26
14) Yev Kouchnir 31
15) Brent Steffensen 33 (~18,*7,1)
16) Brian Arnold 34 (~15,*9)
17) Kyle Sinacori 40
18) Noah Kaufman 42
19) Andres De La Rosa 53 (%)
20) Travis Weinand 54 (%)
21) Idoko Abuh 54












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